Scientists estimate a 2 percent chance that the asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth in 2032.
This also means there’s a 98 percent chance it will pass harmlessly by our planet.
Experts expect these odds to change, with many believing that the risk will likely decrease to zero in the future.
Astronomers are keeping a close eye on a recently discovered asteroid named 2024 YR4 which measures about 40 to 100 meters in diameter. The asteroid’s path has raised concerns, as new calculations slightly increase the chances of it potentially impacting Earth. However, the risk remains very low, so there’s no need to panic just yet.
Currently, scientists estimate a 2 percent chance that the asteroid could hit Earth in 2032. This also means there’s a 98 percent chance it will pass harmlessly by our planet. As researchers continue to study its path and refine their calculations, experts expect these odds to change, with many believing that the risk will likely decrease to zero in the future.
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NASA and the European Space Agency’s Webb Space Telescope are planning to get a closer look at 2024 YR4 in March, before it moves too far out of sight. Once it’s out of view, astronomers will have to wait until 2028 for another opportunity to track it more closely and determine if it poses any real threat.
The potential danger from 2024 YR4 depends on several factors that scientists are still trying to understand, such as the asteroid’s size, speed, and composition. Because it’s still far from Earth, any predictions about its impact remain uncertain and based on rough estimates.
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If the asteroid were to hit Earth, experts believe it would likely explode in the atmosphere rather than directly striking the surface. This kind of explosion could release energy equivalent to nearly 8 million tons of TNT—about 500 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Depending on where it occurred, the blast could cause severe damage within a 50-kilometer radius.
As for where the asteroid might land, experts have mapped a potential “risk corridor” that stretches over northern South America, the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and parts of Africa. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador could be affected, although these predictions could change as more data is collected.
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Ayushi Jain
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