Global 4G smartphone shipments are expected to show double-digit growth at 21.3 percent year-over-year
Smartphone shipments worldwide are expected to reach 1.45 billion units this year. The growth is expected to be flat at 0.6 percent year-over-year. IDC forecasts the growth to remain positive but it is significantly down from 10.4 percent growth in 2015.
According to IDC's quarterly predictions, 4G smartphones are expected to show double-digit growth at 21.3 percent year-over-year. The 4G smartphone shipment is expected to reach 1.17 billion units, up from 967 million in 2015. The growth in 4G smartphone shipments is coming from emerging markets where IDC projects 77 percent of the devices will be 4G-enabled this year.
IDC's quarterly projection also shows uptake in 4G adoption in developed markets like USA, Canada, Japan and Western Europe. The 4G adopted is expected to reach 94 percent, a 9 percent jump from last year. At this rate, the developed markets will soon become 4G only before upgrading to 5G mobile telephony.
"It's been a long slog for 4G uptake in many emerging markets as 4G data tariffs have long been very expensive compared to 3G, while 4G handsets themselves have also been relatively pricey across the board," said Melissa Chau, associate research director, IDC. "We are quickly seeing this change in key growth markets like India where new operator Reliance Jio is aggressively trying to shake up the market by handing out free 4G SIM cards and launching own-branded low-cost 4G-enabled smartphones."
The push to 4G is also seen to provide temporary boost to the shrinking feature phone market. 'In IDC's short-term forecast, 4G feature phones will feature in emerging markets as well as in mature markets like the US until smartphone prices drop further."
"In North America and Western Europe, Google has been putting a significant amount of marketing dollars behind the new Pixel and Pixel XL, although early supply chain indications are that volumes are not at the point where Samsung or Apple should see a significant impact for Q4. Of course, as we head into 2017 this can change, but many eyes will be on Google to see how serious they are about pursuing the hardware play," said Ryan Reith, Program VP, IDC.
Android will continue to own the largest share among mobile platforms and is seen to be at the core of 4G push in emerging markets. "The biggest focus point in regard to Android is Google's recent entry into the hardware space. It is too early to tell if this will negatively impact relations with other hardware partner OEMs," notes IDC.
For Apple's iOS, 2016 could become the first full year in terms of decline in shipments. The iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus are doing well but Apple has already reported three quarters of year-over-year declines and the fourth quarter is projected to show decline as well. "Challenges of low-cost competition remain, and Google getting into the premium space certainly doesn't make things any easier. Look for Apple to mix things up with whatever version(s) they bring to market in the coming year to hopefully rebound shipment growth," says IDC.
While Android continues to grow and Apple facing short-term issues, Windows Phone continues to remain a non-story with relatively no presence either from Microsoft or its OEM partners. IDC projects Windows Phone shipments to decline 79.1 percent in 2016. While OEMs supporting the platform continue to diminish, HP is refueling the space with its own offerings. IDC anticipates a tough road for Windows Phone even with the rumour of Surface Phone lingering around.
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