Artificial intelligence, robotic surgery, aerial taxis, electronic clothing, smartwatches as fitness trackers, digital payments, human microchip implants, drone delivery, autopilot, and driverless technology….I mean, you name it, and they have it on their watch list. Who? Of course, the prodigious think tank of inventors, ideators, planners, scientists, researchers, designers, manufacturers, et al!
Always thinking out of the box with a futuristic vision, these fertile brains prefer walking the offbeat track to set their class apart. What had seemed a figment of one’s freaky imagination or a mindboggling concept of science fiction until yesterday, is now emerging as a thing of smart beauty and meeting our eyes as a wonderful reality.
What if the mind-grabbing dramatic scenes from the epic Star Wars movies or the episodic American TV series Star Trek or closer home, India’s answer to the same premise, Space City Sigma, come alive from the small and silver screens right in front of you? It is as if eye-popping video clips of otherworldly space odysseys and bizarre sci-fi sagas with their brand of avant-garde presentations enter the factual world of engineering and innovation from the reel realm of magic realism and fantasy. Wot say!
To some automakers, autonomous driving could still appear exotic and remain on paper, while for others, rigorous trial runs are very much underway before green-lighting the wheeled specimens to hit the road.
Unmanned mean machines zipping past on metalled roads, cars stopping automatically at traffic intersections, sedans avoiding accidents in the nick of time through remote control, self-driving automobiles saving time and energy with greater speed and efficiency could just sound like rushes straight out of a slick, high-voltage action-packed Hollywood thriller. But on scratching beneath the surface, you’ll find these instances pretty tenable. Well, thanks to ingenious AI architectures that make the apparently implausible possible.
Even as experiments on driverless technology continue unabated, it looks all the more ‘new normal’ in the post-pandemic era. The disruptive technology has been in progress for sometime now alongside a ramp-up in rollouts with e-mobility.
The AI (artificial intelligence) model deployed to a self-reliant vehicle makes it future-ready and prone to precision. A normal vehicle can be converted into an autonomous car by integrating some key components into its system. These include sensors that allow the car to take informed decisions by tracking the surrounding ambience and aligning with it as well as regulating its own movement. The independent cars are well-programmed to treat volumes of humongous data traffic from various sensors like video cameras, LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), RADAR (Radio Detection And Ranging), GPS (Global Positioning System) or inertia sensors. By applying deep learning algorithms, driverless technology rests on vital decisions pertinent to the environment the carriage passes through.
Many blue-chip companies are fast catching up with the wave of self-driving technology and are heavily investing in it to make it reliable on the roads. Of late, notable entities like Google, Uber, Tesla, et al parked money on the driverless edition of sedans and built their own ilk of autonomous automobiles. Significantly, Uber recently inked a driverless deal with Motional (a joint venture between automaker Hyundai Motor Group and auto supplier Aptiv founded in March 2020) to push the envelope for autonomous driving, which many would love to believe, will eventually lead to a fresh atmosphere by subsiding the smog intensity.
A bevy of automakers, namely Motional, Refraction AI, Optimus Ride, Waymo, Zoox, nuTonomy, AutoX and Drive.ai are the front runners in fashioning AI vehicles with their class of autonomous technology being leveraged either for public commute, ride-sharing or for private use.
Hyundai had launched the Kona EV in India back in 2019 with a starting price of Rs. 20 lakhs. Although the cost is in the high-end range, yet the response has been awesome so far, confirms Ravi Sharma, spokesperson, corporate communications at HMIL. “We have plans to unveil the next-generation robotaxi Hyundai IONIQ 5 in India next year (2023),” he announces. Incidentally, the model was launched globally from the Motional stable in 2021. Besides this auto giant with an eye-catching fleet, there are manufacturers like Tata and Mahindra dealing in electric cars and shaping up some newfangled models.
“The real test is to make an autonomous car road-ready without any hitch. To avoid obstacles, collisions and accidents, responsible, interactive and protective AI seems the need of the hour. This will ensure safety of the passengers as well as pedestrians,” avers Mumbai-based automobile expert Aryan Malhotra.
But one wonders if the craze for electric vehicles and the buzz over driverless technology will turn out to be just a flash in the pan! As it stands, autonomous driving is subject to in-depth research and endless experimentations before it finally sees the light of the day. Against the backdrop of heavy traffic snarls, jaywalking tendencies by commuters, encroachment by hawkers on roads, kiosks and shanties occupying a considerable part of the streets, flouting of traffic rules, frequency of accidents — will self-driving technology remain a dream for India?
Driver Ramesh Sahu from Odisha fathoms the difficulty of launching such a means of transport on Indian roads. “This looks absolutely impossible. People behind the steering wheels always tend to overtake other vehicles, straying into their path more often than not, thus violating traffic norms. This is as if they are in a race. Also, road rage complaints are frequently lodged to bring the public transport drivers to book who have the propensity to rash drive,” reasons the motorist of a popular app cab aggregator.
Imagine this pulling up in your neighbouthood
The traffic department rather observes a wait-and-watch policy on this front. An officer at Kolkata Traffic Police (control room), throws the ball in the ruling government’s court. “It is up to the powers that be to decide on the introduction of autonomous traffic. All depends on thorough testing and several stages of experimentation. The velocity rate of the car is also scrutinized before lending a nod to such ground-breaking projects,” he clarifies.
Earlier in March this year, Nitin Gadkari, Union Minister of Road Transport and Highways, looked distraught over the alarming annual rate of accidents happening on Indian roads and the proportion of fatality caused by these mishaps. On the sidelines of a video-conferencing event at the International Conference on Machine Vision and Augmented Intelligence (MAI) 2022, the politico had expressed his worry over the shocking figure of five lakh road accidents being reported on a yearly basis.
More revelations add to the woes, as in around 1.5 lakh commuters succumb to these misfortunes, while three lakh suffer grievous injuries in the aftermath of the accidents.
Laying an emphasis on the significant issue of road safety and its awareness, Gadkari admits that security during travel poses a significant challenge to most developing countries like India. Sad but true, 70% casualties are said to be in the young age bracket of 18-45 years. He categorically recommends the adoption of AI-enabled technology to debar human involvement and detect flaws in transportation.
Delving deeper, he adds that post accidental disasters, the concerned authorities can employ AI-driven drones and robots to facilitate forensic investigation and assess the pattern of accidents (in case of a plane crash) from the retrieved black box, plus use fatigue indicators and sleep trackers for errant drivers.
Anmol Bohre, co-founder and managing director of Enigma Automobiles Private Limited, sounds optimistic about the feasibility of driverless technology in India. “Yes I do believe that the day won’t be far when we will be able to witness autonomous driving in real practice instead of imagining it as just a myth,” shares Bohre, spearheading a startup in the EV market.
“With our vehicles being well-equipped with ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) and an enterprising transport minister like Mr. Gadkari at the helm, this breakthrough is highly probable. In a recent parliamentary session, he pledged that India’s road infrastructure will match the United States’ standards by 2024,” he enthuses.
Industry bigwigs that jumped on the bandwagon of automotive AI internationally, include Audi, BMW, Ford, Google, General Motors, Tesla, Volkswagen, Volvo, among others. While A-listers like Hyundai’s EV ambition seems well on track with a couple of heavyweight introductions pending in India, the autonomous dream of Ford and Volkswagen is yet to spread its wings in the domestic car mart.
Veering the conversation to convertible vehicle models, Bohre agrees that ordinary vehicles can be repurposed as electric ones. “It is definitely doable. But transforming an ICE (traditional Internal Combustion Engines) vehicle platform into an EV is the biggest mistake an OEM (original equipment manufacturer) can make. Future and current vehicles purely built on an EV platform will be the ideal samples for adaptability rather than hybrid or fuel-filled versions,” he opines.
Engineering wise, the design and parts of an autonomous car are expectedly different from a normal variety plying on the road. Therefore, “installation of key digital components or the integration of AI requires embedded vision (computer vision in machines using algorithms to decode meaning by observing pixel patterns in images or a video grab) to provide real-time analysis. Responsiveness of AI is faster than an average human,” informs Bohre.
With the advent of sophisticated communication tools and the proliferation of an urbanized culture, the concept of smart homes, smart products and smart cities became indispensable to modern life. Evidently, the magical utility of an interactive or conversational AI descended as a blessing to mankind. The way the digital voice assistants Alexa, Google Assistant, Siri, Cortana smoothen the communication process in the households, prompt sensors can similarly ease the correspondence on road. Radar, LiDAR, cameras, computer vision, natural language processing, Internet of Things, regression, pattern recognition (Classification), clustering, decision matrix and other machine-learning algorithms will come in handy to navigate self-driving traffic through different routes.
At the crossroads, AI-enabled systems can rapidly impart messages to alert self-driving cars of what lies ahead in near proximity. Some turning points may have complicated layouts that make the prevailing situation in immediate vicinities more difficult to maneuver. It is at this critical juncture that such cutting-edge technologies will caution the EVs against the potential dangers. For example, accidents, pedestrians, cyclists, road blockades, lofty trucks/buses, all these and much more could block the view of the EV’s sensor with respect to traffic signals, commuters or a speedily approaching car from the opposite direction or around the corner. Notably, Hyundai Tucson and XUV 700 are armed with ADAS to perform this task effortlessly. This is like responsible AI that improves communication for an easy, bump-free ride.
Per Fortune Business Insights, the India electric vehicle market size for four wheelers was valued at USD 681.51 million in 2021. The same is predicted to reach USD 47,292.45 million by 2029 from USD 1,415.65 million in 2022, witnessing a CAGR of 65.1% during the forecast period. The Allied Market Research issues an upbeat outlook for the global automotive artificial intelligence market, which is assumed to inflate to $8,887.6 million within 2025 from $445.8 million in 2017, seeing a CAGR of 45.0% during the 2018-2025 time frame.
The scope of the international electric vehicle market is envisioned to touch 39,208 thousand units by 2030 from an anticipated 8,151 thousand units in 2022, observing a CAGR of 21.7%, according to EMOBILITY+. Buoyant demand for zero carbon footprint and governments advocating vehicles with low toxic emission via incentives propelled automakers to embrace EVs and expand the EV market.
While broaching the topic, one may enquire that if ever autonomous driving technology comes to India, will that boost the automobile industry and eventually, the country’s total GDP by unlocking significant economic value? To this, Sangeeta Shroff, Professor-in-Charge, Agro-Economic Research Centre at the reputed Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Pune, explains: “Technology is the key driver of economic advancement. The GDP of India increased by leaps and bounds with innovation and liberalization being its major catalysts. With the AI technology having invaded almost every other sector, the automobile space too did not remain immune to its impact. The country made a rapid progress in the automotive arena, clubbed with its industrial and service sectors.”
It is true that with the pandemic-led spike in e-commerce and cashless payments, digital economy is rising in India. So will AI-driven driverless technology be integral to this new economy? “Autonomous driving technology is likely to be outsourced from overseas and hence impact our foreign-exchange reserves. However, there is every possibility that India might develop the technology indigenously as there is sufficient talent pool in the country,” concedes Shroff. Many define India as a labor surplus country. So, to bridge the gap, reforms in the education sector with a special stress on ‘Kaushal India’ (skill development) and ‘Make in India’ turn out to be the focal points of the ruling government policy.
“These are the thrust areas at the moment, which in turn, can definitely drive the gross enrollment ratio in technical schools and at vocational coaching classes to encourage indigenous entrepreneurship and nurture the health of the cottage industries, many of which are in bad shape. This initiative will help beget raw, home-grown craftsmen and artisans,” volunteers a local contractual worker.
The structural swing in the economy will see labourers gradually migrating from an unskilled traditional sector to a modern domain, dominated by technically-trained hands.
Every invention has its share of initial hiccups, views Shroff. “Similarly, the uptake of the AI technology faces a spate of challenges to overcome. For instance, unsuitable road infrastructure and chaotic traffic will pose obstacles to autonomous vehicles in smoothly steering clear of the traffic congestion. However, it appears that the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways is making attempts to repair the sorry state of Indian roads on a war footing and a substantial part of the government budget is already allocated to this end,” she informs.
While fingers are pointing at the cost-intensiveness of driverless technology, one may ask if startup automakers in India can manufacture AI-driven cars in modest budgets. A common Indian nuclear family may not require an enormous carriage to commute on a daily basis. In that context, can a mini variety be produced to match the purchasing capacity of mid-income groups? “We are already on track to lend fruition to our dream. An autonomous electric three-wheeler is actually being conceptualized and designed but mammoth output is necessary for its commercial viability and tightening the budget to a shoestring,” imparts a techie.
Given the fact that in India, an ordinary man’s modes of transport are usually buses, trams, trains, cabs, scooters, etc., can the same vehicles be rehashed into autonomous EVs to save fuel and diesel, prices of which are skyrocketing? “Yeah certainly, and many businesses are working on it already but from an engineering perspective, it’s best not recommended at the moment before an extensive trial on all kinds of transport is conducted with success,” Bohre sets the record straight.
“An EV has a different platform and design than an ICE (Internal Combustion Engines with traditional make, powered by gasoline, diesel biofuels or even natural gas. These represent the bulk of vehicles running daily). Thus, it won’t be a prudent idea to unveil the electric counterparts immediately for public utility,” he elucidates.
To conserve exhaustible energy like fuel (recently, Asian countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh from the Subcontinent faced one of the worst fuel crises), can renewable resources or alternate sources of energy be exploited other than batteries for use in EVs? “Even in energy-efficient technologies like hydrogen, unless you are in full control of the energy reaction, you need a medium to store the generated power. Therefore, battery power can never be ignored,” warns Bohre in response to the above query.
India is a densely-populated nation and considering the poor condition of its roads, can vehicles be remote-controlled here? “Currently, the answer is a strict no-no. However, with the advent of 5G networks and India’s extensive Internet coverage, this is quite possible in the near future,” assures Bohre.
How important will it be to stay connected to the traffic control department while running self-driving vehicles on roads? “It is highly crucial as the traffic department plays a significant role in effecting autonomous driving technology in the public sphere, which belongs to the jurisdiction of the traffic manning office. Another reason is that AI cannot work effectively without providing the processors with real-time analysis via CCTV cameras on the road and inside a vehicle as well,” justifies Bohre.
As a town planner, Sen draws a different angle to the vital role that a major ministerial portfolio like traffic management ought to play in coordinating with the township authorities for surveillance of roads with the autonomous vehicles. “I am not quite comfortable with the idea of unpacking driverless sedans on Indian roads. Instead, the transport department should cooperate with the city administration to better the road-safety standards through AI-aided CCTVs, advance warnings and automatic imposition of fines for rule violations,” he volunteers.
Bohre gleefully shares of the technology to caution the self-driving EVs in advance to the dangers looming on? “Glad to tell you that Hyundai Tucson and XUV 700 are equipped with ADAS, which performs this function facilely.”
As urbanization with its truckloads of construction activity steadily sprawls to the outskirts, the growing concept of smart cities and townships with state-of-the art amenities become unmistakably essential. This not only includes residential complexes and commercial establishments dotting the city’s empty spaces but also the well-constructed roads and an efficient transport system to iron out communication creases.
Do you feel that to save fuel, curb pollution levels and address the climate change woes, more and more electric vehicles should be launched in smart towns? “Absolutely. I think all smart cities must prioritise EVs as part of their foremost agenda. Beyond the climate change point of view, purely from a humane perspective, such sustainable actions underline the promise of making all citizens breathe in clean air,” concurs Sen. “When we got cracking under the Smart City Programme in around 2016 or so, we ran an online civilian poll, asking people to put forward three major problems that they face on a regular basis. Air pollution was one of the top three issues flagged in the survey. Ever since, we have emphasised installing pollution-monitoring devices, building charging stations for EV vehicles, holding EV Carnival in association with the manufacturers and running eBuses for the last four years,” he further enumerates.
Should there be separate lanes for eco-friendly transport like cycles and EVs to facilitate their traffic management? “We already laid down 35 km long cycle tracks in New Town and plan to extend this to 50 km soon. We strongly believe that safety is supremely important to cyclists and the segregated green cycle tracks, marked with flexible green plastic bollards and zebra crossings made cycles hugely popular,” shares Sen.
Battery-charged electric vehicles are the key to many solutions like addressing environmental pollution, say green activists in unison. In line with this objective, green mobility is the latest revolution to underscore. EVs are therefore an eco-friendly mode of transport to check the carbon footprint for a clean environment. Custodians of pollution control board underpin the need for emission-free conveyances to comply with the decarbonisation campaign.
“Green duty should top the list of every state’s growth policies. I’m happy that my city had already phased out 15-year old buses, readily responding to the transport ministry’s directive,” ascertains environmentalist Rupam Kumar Dutta. “Launch of EVs for both personal and public travel is a positive step indeed,” he appreciates. “See, when you are aboard a ship that is sailing in turbulent waters, you don’t really wait for the storm to topple it and see things spiralling out of your hand until the vessel sinks, right? You act on it immediately. So, the ruling regime must overlook the exorbitant expenditure involved in taking such organic initiatives urgently for common good,” reasons Dutta, also an assistant college lecturer and doubling up as the treasurer of the Institute of Landscape, Ecology and Ekistics (ILEE).
Resting all speculations, pollution consultant Goutam Sengupta said that “pollution is a localized problem and requires an area-specific solution. There is no universal message or a way out to stop this.” “You see, planting saplings along the busiest roads can hardly help trim the toxic emission to zero levels. Climate change is a global phenomenon to cope with. Harmful contaminants, urbanization with inadequate green cover, excessive construction activity, deforestation and industrialization are widely blamed for this disaster,” perceives Sengupta.